Analytics · Cash
R10 — Rolling Cash Flow Forecast
Receipts only. No payments have been recorded for these weeks, so the closing balance and headroom below reflect collections alone and overstate the cash position. Enter the payment side under Treasury → Payment Schedule, or import it, and this becomes a true direct-method forecast.
Direct-method forecast over fourteen weeks. Receivable inflow comes from the weighted collection model (Inflow detail). Payments are exactly what has been entered or imported on the Payment Schedule, in the week it was entered against — Arlens does not estimate or phase any outflow, so a week with no entry shows no payment. Opening cash and the covenant floor are the latest treasury position recorded. The line that matters is closing cash against the covenant floor.
Scenario
Base case
Collection factor 1.00×
Opening cash
Not recorded
Forecast starts from nil
Closing cash — week 14
4,253.96
Builds 4,253.96 Cr
Lowest point
613.10
No covenant floor recorded
Weeks below floor
—
Nothing to test against
Total inflow
4,253.96
Of which AR 4,253.96 Cr
Closing cash — three scenarios
— Best case— Base case— Worst case
Base case: receivable inflow is the base-case weighted inflow × 1.00. Nothing else differs between the scenarios.
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Lowest cash | Week 14 close | Weeks below floor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best case | 686.68 | 4,764.44 | — |
| Base case | 613.10 | 4,253.96 | — |
| Worst case | 502.75 | 3,488.25 | — |
Scenarios differ only in the factor applied to the weighted receivable inflow — Best case 1.12×, Base case 1.00×, Worst case 0.82×. Payments are the same in all three: they are what is recorded on the schedule.
Fourteen-week cash flow — Base case₹ Crore
| Week | Period | Opening cash | AR collections | Other inflow | Total in | Suppliers | Payroll | Statutory | Debt service | Capex | Total out | Net movement | Closing cash | Headroom | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | 16-Nov-2026 – 22-Nov-2026 | 0.00 | 613.10 | 0.00 | 613.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 613.10 | 613.10 | — | No floor |
| W2 | 23-Nov-2026 – 29-Nov-2026 | 613.10 | 767.65 | 0.00 | 767.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 767.65 | 1,380.75 | — | No floor |
| W3 | 30-Nov-2026 – 06-Dec-2026 | 1,380.75 | 718.16 | 0.00 | 718.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 718.16 | 2,098.91 | — | No floor |
| W4 | 07-Dec-2026 – 13-Dec-2026 | 2,098.91 | 621.77 | 0.00 | 621.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 621.77 | 2,720.68 | — | No floor |
| W5 | 14-Dec-2026 – 20-Dec-2026 | 2,720.68 | 279.13 | 0.00 | 279.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 279.13 | 2,999.82 | — | No floor |
| W6 | 21-Dec-2026 – 27-Dec-2026 | 2,999.82 | 411.73 | 0.00 | 411.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 411.73 | 3,411.55 | — | No floor |
| W7 | 28-Dec-2026 – 03-Jan-2027 | 3,411.55 | 173.36 | 0.00 | 173.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 173.36 | 3,584.91 | — | No floor |
| W8 | 04-Jan-2027 – 10-Jan-2027 | 3,584.91 | 95.58 | 0.00 | 95.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 95.58 | 3,680.49 | — | No floor |
| W9 | 11-Jan-2027 – 17-Jan-2027 | 3,680.49 | 95.58 | 0.00 | 95.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 95.58 | 3,776.07 | — | No floor |
| W10 | 18-Jan-2027 – 24-Jan-2027 | 3,776.07 | 95.58 | 0.00 | 95.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 95.58 | 3,871.65 | — | No floor |
| W11 | 25-Jan-2027 – 31-Jan-2027 | 3,871.65 | 95.58 | 0.00 | 95.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 95.58 | 3,967.23 | — | No floor |
| W12 | 01-Feb-2027 – 07-Feb-2027 | 3,967.23 | 95.58 | 0.00 | 95.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 95.58 | 4,062.81 | — | No floor |
| W13 | 08-Feb-2027 – 14-Feb-2027 | 4,062.81 | 95.58 | 0.00 | 95.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 95.58 | 4,158.39 | — | No floor |
| W14 | 15-Feb-2027 – 21-Feb-2027 | 4,158.39 | 95.58 | 0.00 | 95.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 95.58 | 4,253.96 | — | No floor |
| Total | 4,253.96 | 0.00 | 4,253.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4,253.96 |
If the base case is tight, these are the levers
| Lever | Available | Lead time | Where in Arlens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apply the unapplied receipt pool | 599.06 | Same day | Receipts & Knock-off |
| Despatch invoices never sent | 1,341.13 | 1 day | Send Invoices |
| Open disputes with POD on file (value in dispute) | 21.43 | 1–2 weeks | Disputes / Proof of Delivery |
| Convert open promises falling due | 201.45 | On the promised date | Promise to Pay |
| Undrawn working capital line | Not recorded | Per facility terms | Treasury — outside Arlens |
Reading of the forecast
On the Base case, cash reaches its lowest point at 613.10 Cr. No covenant floor is recorded, so there is nothing to test the closing balance against.
The first two levers in the table are within the receivables team's own control and need no customer behaviour change at all. Together they come to 1,940.19 Cr.